Economic uncertainty is making headlines again, and for many people considering a real estate move, the question is clear: Should I buy or sell during a possible recession?

A recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting and Keeping Current Matters reveals that nearly 68% of Americans are delaying plans to buy or sell due to economic worries. But there’s more nuance to this data than you might expect. Not everyone is hesitating out of fear. Some are waiting out of optimism—hoping for lower mortgage rates and better affordability if a recession hits.

Here’s the real story: While mortgage rates have historically fallen during economic slowdowns, home prices don’t usually follow the same trend. Understanding what really happens during recessions—and why this moment could still be a good time to make a move—can help you make a smart decision that aligns with your goals. Here are six compelling reasons not to let recession fears derail your real estate plans.

1. Mortgage Rates Typically Drop During Recessions

One common reason some buyers hope for a recession is the belief that it will lead to lower mortgage rates. And they’re not wrong—historically, mortgage rates tend to decline during economic slowdowns.

According to data from the last six U.S. recessions, interest rates dropped every time. The logic is simple: to stimulate the economy, the Federal Reserve often cuts interest rates. When this happens, mortgage rates tend to follow. Lower rates could mean more affordable monthly payments and a chance to lock in long-term savings.

However, there’s no guarantee. If you’re waiting solely for rates to come down, you might be gambling with timing that’s impossible to predict.

2. Home Prices Don’t Always Drop in a Recession

While many assume a recession automatically means lower home prices, that’s often not the case. Home price trends tend to follow their existing trajectory—even through economic slumps.

Looking at data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices actually increased during four of the last six U.S. recessions. The only significant price drop happened during the 2008 housing crisis, which was caused by reckless lending practices and an oversupply of homes—very different from today’s environment.

In 2025, inventory is rising, but the overall housing shortage persists. Demand continues to outpace supply in many areas, meaning a dramatic price drop remains unlikely.

3. Rising Inventory Is Creating New Opportunities

One silver lining in today’s market is the increase in available homes. More inventory means more options for buyers and less competition. For years, the housing market has been defined by limited supply and intense bidding wars. Now, with more sellers entering the market, buyers are finally seeing more choices.

For sellers, this doesn’t mean it’s a bad time to list. It just means strategy matters more than ever. Pricing correctly and presenting your home well are key to standing out and attracting serious buyers.

4. You Can Negotiate More Favorable Terms

With the market becoming more balanced, buyers have a stronger negotiating position than they’ve had in years. This includes negotiating for concessions like closing cost coverage, mortgage rate buydowns, or even home upgrades.

In past markets dominated by sellers, buyers had to waive contingencies and compete aggressively. Today, it’s more possible to approach a transaction with flexibility and get creative with your financing or closing terms.

5. Renting Could Be More Costly Over Time

If you’re considering waiting out the market by continuing to rent, remember this: rent doesn’t build wealth. While monthly rent payments might seem more manageable short-term, they don’t contribute to your financial future.

Homeownership, on the other hand, builds equity. Over time, your monthly payments increase your net worth rather than someone else’s. As the Federal Reserve’s data consistently shows, homeowners have nearly 40 times the wealth of renters on average. Choosing to buy when you’re financially ready—even if the timing isn’t perfect—can put you on a long-term path to wealth generation.

6. There’s No Perfect Time—Only the Right Time for You

The truth is, trying to time the market perfectly is nearly impossible. Every real estate cycle is different, and waiting for “the perfect moment” can leave you missing out on opportunities that make sense for your unique situation.

If your life circumstances call for a move—whether that’s because of a growing family, a job change, or a desire to build equity—it may be more important to act based on your personal goals rather than external economic conditions. A trusted local agent can help you explore your options, analyze the market, and create a strategy that works for you, whether you’re buying, selling, or both.

Bottom Line

Recessions often come with fear and hesitation, but they can also offer opportunity. While mortgage rates may decline in a slowdown, home prices likely won’t follow—especially in today’s undersupplied market.

If you’re waiting for a recession to make your move, it’s time to think carefully about what you’re really hoping for. Are you betting on a future that might not come? Or is now the right moment for you to act on your goals?

A conversation with a real estate professional can help you make a well-informed decision rooted in data and aligned with your needs—not headlines.